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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:57 pm 
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PeterX wrote:
Have you took the effort on you and looked at the Corona death statistics?
Actually yes I did. That's why I'm sure there's something wrong. The truth is, in the U.S. alone there are more suicides per year than the total deaths due to this virus worldwide so far (note: per year vs. total). And even pneumonia kills more people in the U.S. alone every year, not to mention worldwide (again per year in one country vs. worldwide total). So you were saying?

But let's be fair, let's face that the stats do not contain every case, and the actual number of deaths might be tenfold. Then cancer still beats it not only in this particular year, but _every_ _single_ year.

All I'm saying is that the aftermath of the gov's reactions will be far more severe than the epidemic itself. If anybody doubts that, then they are either too young or extremely naive. During the last week, more than 5% of the working age population in my country was fired. No mistake, more than 5% within a week! What would be the long term effects of that, what do you think? Many happy people on 2021's new years eve? Think!

Cheers,
bzt


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:44 am 
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Cop Runs Amok with Radar Speed Gun
After decades of use of these instruments of death, I am still waiting for the story to go with this headline.


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:51 am 
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@bzt: You are certainly correct in some ways but not in others. I am again reminded of that quote I heard recently, that if humanity has one failing, it is the inability to understand the exponential function. Of the European countries, only Italy could be said to be at the height of the outbreak. All others are at the start. The problem is that the first derivative of the exponential function is the exponential function. Meaning, not only does the number of infected double after a fixed amount of time, but also the rate at which people get infected doubles after a fixed amount of time.

What I want to say with this is, the corona virus dead so far will be overshadowed by the corona virus dead yet to come.

Next point is that the main problem is not actually the deadliness of the disease, which appears low outside of risk groups, but the infectiousness, which threatens to overwhelm all our health systems. Meaning that now is a really bad time to get appendicitis. All our hospitals are overwhelmed by the demand for high-intensity care, so if you have anything other than corona right now, you might not get the care you need. If you die of appendicitis now, that should be counted among the corona death toll, since in normal times you would not have died.

Your comparisons also fail on a number of metrics: Suicide is a voluntary act, pneumonia is often caused by germs we have means to fight, and cancer is, well, it's cancer. It's always in the background and we know of some of the risk factors involved. A COVID-19 infection, on the other hand, is something we have no cure nor inoculation for. We can only treat the symptoms and hope that's enough to get your body to fight off the infection on its own.

On the other hand, there comes a time when the economic damage due to the shutdown exceeds the economic damage due to the disease. Certainly. I mean, people keep going on and on about government programs to sort of pause the economic system, but that doesn't work: People still need to eat, and will still spend money on that. That money has to come from somewhere. And the government doesn't have any money except that which it takes away from other people. How are they going to do that when no-one has any money left? I really don't know. I have heard some people say that it might have been better in the long run to just let the disease spread naturally, then clean up the dead bodies and go about our lives.

Meanwhile, Russia simply closed their borders in the early days of the outbreak, and they barely have a problem to speak of. Makes you question open-borders-policies, doesn't it?

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Thou hast outraged, not insulted me, sir; but for that I ask thee not to beware of Starbuck; thou wouldst but laugh; but let Ahab beware of Ahab; beware of thyself, old man.


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:13 am 
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TBH, we don't really know what sort of problem Russia has, or will have. The same goes for North Korea. Sure, they tell us they have no probem, but .....

Trump told us that they had no problem - until he could deny it no longer.


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:23 am 
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iansjack wrote:
TBH, we don't really know what sort of problem Russia has, or will have. The same goes for North Korea. Sure, they tell us they have no probem, but .....

OK, fair enough. That did actually occur to me, but only after I had posted.

A thing I forgot to mention, is that the integral of the exponential function is also the exponential function. Meaning that the number of people that have been afflicted also doubles at a fixed rate. And since a fixed proportion of those afflicted dies, and all proportions of exponential functions are exponential functions, that also means that the death toll doubles at a fixed rate.

Maths can make you hopeless sometimes... now, if you'll excuse me, I think I will get my morning walk in while I can still do so. BTW, why does winter suddenly start at the beginning of spring?

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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:00 am 
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nullplan wrote:
What I want to say with this is, the corona virus dead so far will be overshadowed by the corona virus dead yet to come.
This is certainly true. As of today according to wordometer there are 300,000 known cases. Let's overestimate the now and will-be deaths to 1 million. This is an increadibly small amount compared to the world population (not implying 1 million people doesn't count, don't get me wrong, all I'm saying it's 0.0000001%, yet all humanity suffers the consequences of the economy).

nullplan wrote:
All our hospitals are overwhelmed by the demand for high-intensity care, so if you have anything other than corona right now, you might not get the care you need.
Yes, exactly. But does really those 300,000 ill people worldwide cause the overcrowdedness of hospitals, or is it the panic?

nullplan wrote:
pneumonia is often caused by germs we have means to fight
Exactly that was my point. Even though we have vaccine against the Pneumonia Coccus bacteria, yet it kills more than ten times more people every year worldwide. Every year. And it is also spreading exponentially. Yet govs are not killing the economy because of it (or because of any other disease).

nullplan wrote:
On the other hand, there comes a time when the economic damage due to the shutdown exceeds the economic damage due to the disease.
Which leads us back to my original point. I'm sure we're already passed that point: you said it yourself you might not get health-care in hospitals and economy already got the punch that will bring it to its knees. The question is, what will happen when people starting to realize that? That's what I'm afraid of. Their reactions, and mostly what response would the gov give to that with those head-shot trained policemen. You know the saying, if you have a hammer, you see everything to be a nail.

nullplan wrote:
I have heard some people say that it might have been better in the long run to just let the disease spread naturally, then clean up the dead bodies and go about our lives.
Yeah, I've heard that too. That's insane, I'm not saying we should not have quarantines and monitor people's health. But I'm absolutely sure putting a stop to the economy is not the answer either, and it could be easily cause more deaths at the end than the virus would have should it be left run free. (And again, I'm not implying we should let it run its course, we must protect people against it, I'm just using this as worst-case.) It looks like our govs provided a "solution" which is going to be worse on the long run than the known worst-case scenario. Congrats!

nullplan wrote:
Meanwhile, Russia simply closed their borders in the early days of the outbreak, and they barely have a problem to speak of. Makes you question open-borders-policies, doesn't it?
Which brings us to the biggest problem of our time, fake news and misinformation. Unlike the U.S., in my country we got information from Russia. They have exactly the same problem as Europe, and they are not denying it at all. As a matter of fact, they provide constantly updated territory graphs as well, just like everybody else. It is only the U.S. media that says otherwise.

Cheers,
bzt


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:44 am 
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Quote:
Let's overestimate the now and will-be deaths to 1 million. This is an incredibly small amount compared to the world population (not implying 1 million people doesn't count, don't get me wrong, all I'm saying it's 0.0000001%, yet all humanity suffers the consequences of the economy).

Assuming that is an overestimate (which, if we are talking about world-wide figures, is probably not true), it represents what happens if we take the measures that are causing economic difficulties. But if we don't take these measures then the death rate will be orders of magnitude higher.

You're not comparing like with like.

Complacency like yours is our biggest enemy here. It leads to moronic statements like "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China, It's going to be fine" and "It will go away. Just stay calm, it will go away". No big problem when the moron making the statements is posting on an Internet forum, but when he's in charge of one of the largest countries in the world ....

Anyway, this is straying from the original demonizing, in your OP, of those brave people who are doing their best to deal with this awful situation. They've got enough problems and hard work in protecting the rest of us from ourselves without that sort of crap. Give them a break.


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:24 am 
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iansjack wrote:
Assuming that is an overestimate (which, if we are talking about world-wide figures, is probably not true), it represents what happens if we take the measures that are causing economic difficulties. But if we don't take these measures then the death rate will be orders of magnitude higher.
You clearly haven't checked the CDC's and WHO's statistics.

iansjack wrote:
You're not comparing like with like.
Of course, I've seriously overestimated the virus casualties worldwide, and even more underestimated the others. It was in favour of the seriousness of this pandemic. Newsflash: even with this "help", the whole thing does not stand.

But if you insist, here are the worldwide numbers: as of today, less than 20,000 people died because of Corona, and over 100,000 cured. If the mortality rate would be 100% (but it's not) then there could be 300,000 deaths tops. Pick any disease from the WHO's list above, a LOT more people are dying of them EVERY SINGLE YEAR. People who already lost their job because of the panic? Millions. The death toll will never be that high.

iansjack wrote:
Complacency like yours is our biggest enemy here.
Believing the fake news instead of scientific facts and authentic statistics is the biggest enemy. No offense, but it looks like you are part of the real problem.

iansjack wrote:
It leads to moronic statements like "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China, It's going to be fine" and "It will go away. Just stay calm, it will go away". No big problem when the moron making the statements is posting on an Internet forum, but when he's in charge of one of the largest countries in the world ....
Your words, not mine. I made it particularly clear I don't agree with such statements. I agree though we are in serious trouble if morons who are in charge of the largest countries are denying facts, and spread lies such as global warming doesn't exists, or that growth can be eternal on a planet with finite resources.

iansjack wrote:
Anyway, this is straying from the original demonizing, in your OP, of those brave people
This just proves that you didn't understood the topic. My original post was about the consequences, let me quote myself to refresh your memories: "Why do I have a feeling that pretty soon the epidemic will be the least of our concerns?"

Cheers,
bzt


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:05 am 
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bzt wrote:
Why do I have a feeling that pretty soon the epidemic will be the least of our concerns?

bzt

Worst case estimates for the USA are 1.6 million deaths. That's real-world scientific forecasting from people with experience of past epidemics, not keyboard warriors.

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Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Mark Twain

I sincerely hope that you never have personal experience of how blinkered you are.


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:56 pm 
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nullplan wrote:
Maths can make you hopeless sometimes...

I know a guy in the USA - a slightly nutty math/programming enthusiast - who did some math on the spread of Coronavirus, considered that he himself is high-risk, and self-isolated in February. He's fine. :) Well, his social life might not be, but that's another story lol.

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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:34 pm 
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iansjack wrote:
Worst case estimates for the USA are 1.6 million deaths. That's real-world scientific forecasting from people with experience of past epidemics, not keyboard warriors.
By whom? Where is your source? Yeah, you've spoken to someone who has talked to someone who heard a read-world scientific forecast, sure! It is hard not noticing that so far you haven't provided any source of any kind... Which makes YOU the keyboard warrior ;-)

You did notice that when I talked about the estimated numbers on death counts, I've provided links to authentic sources such as CDC and WHO, didn't you?

iansjack wrote:
I sincerely hope that you never have personal experience of how blinkered you are.
I sincerely hope that one day you'll learn why it is dangerous to believe in fake news instead of scientific facts. And I also do hope that those concentration camps your country is building won't be used. Oh, wait... I should rather say I hope you won't end up there like those poor latin americans. Sources: https://nypost.com/2019/06/18/aoc-claims-us-is-putting-concentration-camps-on-border/, https://concentrationcamps.us/, http://nstarzone.com/CAMPS.html, video footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnbrqYoToWo.

You see, when I make a claim, I also provide source, so that people can check the validity. That's what makes the difference between you and me.

Cheers,
bzt


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:05 pm 
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Which brings us to the biggest problem of our time, fake news and misinformation. Unlike the U.S., in my country we got information from Russia. They have exactly the same problem as Europe, and they are not denying it at all. As a matter of fact, they provide constantly updated territory graphs as well, just like everybody else. It is only the U.S. media that says otherwise.

it's hard to find more fake and misinforming media than in russia. "unlike US we have info from russia". how? RT? :mrgreen: =D> it's a cancerous country with totalitarian cancerous ruler (fuehrer) and majority of population and their media are good followers of goebbels. I have a million reasons to hate them but I don't want to talk about this, just wanted to note - if by getting info from russia you mean watching their propaganda sh1t, like all their TV, youtube and bot farms over all social media are, then you are very much out of reality.
they say, coronavirus is devised by americans (and even imply that it's called "Corona" as a referrence to Trump - before becoming the president, he was giving away coronas to beauties in some sh1t show) doh, they say it's for destroying china's economy and also they say "it's western bullshit, we, russians aren't gonna be affected, we have another "spirit" etc." they make religious procession in order to "protect" from that "western fabrication, meant to destroy china's economy", kiss icons... so maybe you would like their attitude towards this problem, but it's far away from a sane approach. it's a very ill society. and you never gonna get what happens there until it's impossible to hide. like was with the Chornobyl catastrophe and tons of other ones (last year they had yet another nuclear oopsie (Severodvinsk, Nyonoksa) with some of their mega weapon, again - zero truth, "everything's just fine" from the officials, just Geiger counter didn't buy that ****). you say you get info from there. in 2014, when they attacked Ukraine and occupied part of its territory, they shot down the plane, international flight, MH17, btw, the processing of this case just started recently - it may have very bad consequences for mordor, because almost 300 killed innocent, many of which are from EU is not something, europe can close their eyes on easily. unlike killed ukrainians, thousands since 2014. it's terrorism. country terrorist. so what "real info" you could get from there? what they say about this? that that were ukrainian nazi's on the UFO, who shot the plane down? you know, their "media" said almost that. it's so hopeless, that I won't even try to explain. for anybody not knowing russian and not having access to that realm, it's hopeless to try to explain how sh1tty it is. to be in russia or near it. they behave as medieval savages, annexing territories of sovereign countries (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine), make slaughters inside (Chechnya), internal terracts made by FSB where high-rise buildings were exploded, deploy terracts in europeans capitals (london), killing the opposing totalitarism (Nemtsov the most prominent one). many europeans have antipathy to US and sympathy to russia. but have they ever really familiarized with it? come to me, I live 18 km near the borderline of the "hybrid" war, I'll help you to get to the occupied Horlivka, there you could directly familiarize with what that "russian world"* is.
* - they think of themselves as the chosen ones, "super state", "the third Rome" (that's an old even official term, so beloved by the adepts), and mimick the nastiest habits of empires and totalitarian states of the past, "russian world", "russkiy mir", apparently calqued from nazi's "Deutsche Lebensraum" is what they call their way of living and territories they believe should belong to them.
Hungary also knew what it feels like to be in that sphere of influence of this state. 1956. Czechoslovakia knew, Baltic stated knew, all the neighbor hood of mordor did. Ukraine is trying to get out of that now, but it's very f&cked up by mentality of the majority, if you have most population homo soveticus, it's hard to get out of that sh1t. the clown and russian puppet zelensky, elected for president is a bitter proof of that. But when I see, hungarian writing "unlike US we get info from russia" I cry loudly - OH, F&CKING COME ON! no you don't, you all are not even suspecting what a **** you are trying to play with. damn, even here this ****.

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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:07 am 
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A sobering read here for those complacent about coronavirus:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rus-crisis


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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:14 am 
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bzt wrote:
iansjack wrote:
Worst case estimates for the USA are 1.6 million deaths. That's real-world scientific forecasting from people with experience of past epidemics, not keyboard warriors.
By whom? Where is your source?


The CDC. (You could've googled that for yourself, easily.)

Note that the mortality rate will explode once intensive care units become oversaturated. That is why all these shutdown measures are taken -- to flatten the curve, so ICU's don't become oversaturated. They are doing triage in Italy (and elsewhere), for crying out loud!

I have three high-risk persons in my family, and probably over a dozen in my closer friendship circle. (Asthma, allergy etc.) I take a very dim view on keyboard warriors and conspiracy theorists talking out of their arses on this, especially since I've got somewhat of an inside view on the subject. A good friend of mine is working at the University of Marburg, virology, on a vaccine / medication for COVID-19, and another friend is working in the ICU of a Bielefeld hospital. They'd have your hide for some of the stuff you're spouting here. The situation is serious.

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 Post subject: Re: Meanwhile somewhere in my country
PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:18 am 
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zaval wrote:
... majority of (Russian) population and their media are good followers of goebbels.

I don't think it is... (what word should I use here?.. OK...) cool to say that of more than a hundred million of people.

And I don't think we should be talking about them. It's the state/government with which people have problems on both sides of the border. The official theories and numbers among many other things and problems come from there.


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